| Title |
Electoral volatility in Lithuanian municipal council elections, 1995–2011 / |
| Translation of Title |
Rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumas Lietuvos savivaldybių tarybų rinkimuose 1995–2011 metais. |
| Authors |
Jastramskis, Mažvydas ; Jastramskis, Mažvydas |
| Full Text |
|
| Pages |
28 |
| Keywords [eng] |
Electoral volatility ; Lithuanian municipal council elections ; local elections |
| Abstract [eng] |
The aim of this dissertation is to analyze and explain the variance of electoral volatility between the Lithuanian municipalities. All local elections held since the restoration of Lithuania’s independence are analyzed (a total of six elections from 1995–2011). Dissertation is based on all the principal theoretical explanations of electoral volatility: sociostructural theory, economic voting, party system and institutional-contextual factors. Some theories are modified in order for them to be used in the context of Lithuanian local elections. Dissertation also proposes a four-fold party system classification that allows discerning different long-term coalitional patterns in Lithuanian municipal councils. The empirical investigation relies on quantitative (statistical) methods: descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, non-parametric tests of population comparison and ordinary least squares regression. Three dependent variables (facets of electoral volatility) are used in the empirical analysis: total electoral volatility, extra-systemic volatility and vote share stability of a municipality’s dominant (mayor’s) party. It is found in the dissertation that these three facets of electoral volatility are influenced by various factors: cultural heterogeneity (increases electoral volatility), supply of parties, the correspondence between local and national party systems, electoral turnout (influence weakens since 2002), party membership density (influence not stable), local party system (coalitional patterns) and short-term economic trends (mainly affects the vote share stability of a mayor‘s party). |
| Type |
Summaries of doctoral thesis |
| Language |
English |
| Publication date |
2013 |
