| Abstract [eng] |
The main purpose of master thesis is to to evaluate the influence of the selected main factors on the prices of energy products. The work consists of six main parts; comparison of energy price crises, causes of the energy price crisis in Europe, consequences of the energy price crisis in Europe and measures to reduce them, assessment methodology of factors determining the change in energy prices, European Union Energy Price analysis and conclusion and recommendations. The comparison of energy price crisis review 5 different energy price crises from the 1973 to 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. The most often observed similarity is related to military conflicts in one of the oil-supplying regions, when countries are forced to choose the side they support. The main difference observed between the crisis of 1973 and the most recent one is that the former crisis was focused on the fossil fuel - coal, while in this case the crisis is more related to gas and oil. Literature analysis review the causes of the energy price crisis: the COVID-19 pandemic, the dependence of countries on Russia, the application of sanctions, the activities of the OPEC cartel, energy futures, natural resources and LNG, the green economy and the liberalization of the electricity market and renewable resources. Consequences of the energy price crisis: poverty, inflation, unemployment rate, decrease in trade, changes in GDP were also distinguished. After the literature analysis there was a methodological analysis of similar scientific researches, several commonly used methods for performing the analysis were identified. Some of the most commonly used were descriptive statistics, linear regression, ARCH and GARCH models. ARIMA linear model was used for daily interval data, but since the data was characterized by high volatility, ARCH and GARCH models were also created. After evaluating several different GARCH models, according to the informative AIC criterion, it was observed that the most accurately created model contains a threshold, which can later be named as a structural break. The obtained results showed that the structural break occurred in January 2020. The conclusions summarize that before the crisis significant variables were: Ural oil spot price, oil product inventory level, inflation in the Eurozone. It is worth noting that the level of reserves of petroleum products, although statistically significant, has little significance in the study. After the crisis: oil and oil product imports from Russia, the US dollar index and OPEC net oil supply. In this case, although the import of oil and oil products from Russia is also at a highly statistically significant level, the indicator itself is quite low and has little significance in this study. These variables influencing after the structural break show that severely restricting oil imports from Russia had an impact Brent oil price due to increased demand. . |
