| Abstract [eng] |
This paper seeks to establish whether Lithuanian municipalities are experiencing significant public policy change through the budget allocation process and, if so, whether this change is influenced by a change in political power. Three theoretical approaches that differ in their assumptions about the policy change - incrementalism, the standard model of the policy change and punctuated equilibrium – are called upon to try to solve this problem. The object of this research is Lithuanian municipalities in the period between 2011 and 2020. This research aims to determine whether Lithuanian municipalities are experiencing significant changes in budget allocation and which theoretical approach can best explain them. The objectives of this research are the following: 1. To review the theoretical framework on changes in budget allocation and political power and previous research on these topics; 2. To collect and review data on changes in political power and budget allocation in Lithuanian municipalities; 3. To carry out a statistical analysis of the collected data to measure changes in budget allocation in municipalities and the impact of changes in political power on these changes; 4. To assess the consistency of the results of the statistical analysis with the theoretical framework and to suggest further research directions in this academic field. Five hypotheses are generated to reach the aim of this research: H1: All municipalities experience only insignificant changes in their budgets over the research period, regardless of whether there has been a change in political power; H2: Municipalities with a change in political power experience a statistically significantly larger change in their first budget adopted after the elections than municipalities with no change in political power; H3: Municipalities that have changed political power have a statistically significantly higher average number of significant changes in budget allocation in the 2015-2019 term than municipalities that have remained unchanged; H4: Changes in budget allocation in municipalities are more likely to be insignificant, but significant and highly significant budget changes are also detected, both in cases of changes in political power and stability of political power; H5: Significant changes in budget allocation in municipalities are most often recorded in the first budget adopted after parliamentary elections. Following conclusions are generated: the incrementalism theory prediction was rejected. The results also called into question the assumption of the standard model that significant changes in budget allocation can be expected with a change in political power. Thus, punctuated equilibrium theory seems to be the most promising approach to explain trends in budget changes in a Lithuanian municipality: it has been found that there are cases of significant changes in budget allocations across all policy areas, which cannot be fully explained by the municipal elections alone, although, the prediction that the parliamentary elections would be an equilibrium punctuating force remains unconfirmed in all policy areas. Future research should focus on case studies of specific municipalities to identify the causal mechanisms of punctuated equilibrium; analyse the programme budgets adopted by municipal councils to test the consistency of the empirical evidence with the theories; focus on other areas of public policy change, and assess the impact of discretionary spending on the changes in budget allocation. Although this study is unable to explain what are the specific causes of significant budgetary change, it contributes to academic knowledge on the subject by providing results that reinforce the validity of the assumptions of punctuated equilibrium theory in explaining public policy change, and that question the ability of incrementalism and the standard explanation of policy change in particular to explain the empirical reality. |
