| Abstract [eng] |
In Europe, abandoned agricultural land is a growing concern and the problem remains the same in Lithuania. Their presence not only leads to untapped agricultural potential, but also makes land use management more difficult and reduces the value of the landscape as abandonment processes leads to the overgrowth of areas with low-value grasses and shrubs. In order to control the abandonment of agricultural land optimally it‘s important to understand what are the causes and how meaningful those reasons are. Molėtai district municipality is one of the areas most affected by abandonment processes in Lithuania where the study of this work is being carried out. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for assessing the spatial distribution of abandoned agricultural lands that would be applicable to the highlands of Lithuania. Four different methods were used to conduct the study: literature analysis, logical reasoning, spatial regression analysis and cartographic analysis. The structure of the work consists of an introduction, literature review, work methodology, results, conclusions, used literature, summary in Lithuanian and English and appendices. The first chapter of the theoretical work reviews the concept of abandoned agricultural lands, discusses the reasons for abandonment of agricultural land, gets acquainted with research on the topic in Lithuania as well as abroad with special emphasis on research based on cartographic methods. The research of the master's thesis analyzes the dispersion of abandoned agricultural lands according to the links with the factors of different aspects. First, the indicators of factors were selected according to the reasons for abandonment of agricultural lands mentioned in the scientific literature. Further, the study performed spatial regression analysis using the ordinary least squares method tool of the ArcGIS Pro software environment statistical results of which allowed to interpret the distribution of abandoned lands with available indicator data while distinguishing the significance of factors for the studied phenomenon. Also in the work the characteristics of the prediction efficiency of abandoned lands in space were analyzed with the maps of the standard deviation residues. The study revealed that only a few selected variables show a more significant influence on the prevalence of abandoned agricultural land while the data of the indicators used in the study explain the phenomenon in general at a poor level. The work also revealed that the poor forecasting of abandoned agricultural land is taking place in the areas of the study which are significantly affected by the processes of agricultural land abandonment. The obtained results of the work may be significant in the field of land management, especially for the institutions supervising and controlling abandoned agricultural lands (SE State Land Fund). |
