| Abstract [eng] |
This work consists of 110 pages, 50 charts, 7 pictures, 59 references. The main purpose of this master thesis is to analyze and forecast the financial state of Lithuanian milk industry companies. Also to check if there is a single universal trend for forecasting the financial state of companies. The work consists of three essential parts: the analysis of scientific articles, books and publications, development of methodology and finding results of the research, also the conclusion and recommendations. The study of literature part covers fundamentals of company financial analysis, data collection, differences of national and international financial statements, problems and solutions. It also covers the concept of ratio analysis, meaning and interpretation. The last topic covered in literature analysis is forecasting. The main focus is on forecasting using trends, measurement of trends accuracy, deviation in long term forecasts. It was created design of research in the next stage. The set of ratios was created based on statements in literature, also based on the environment of analyzed companies. Total 18 ratios were selected, 10 of which are solvency ratios, and rest 8 are profitability ratios, and all of them are listed in Table 2. Also the set of 8 trends (listed in Appendix 22), to be used to forecast, was created. 3 companies of Lithuanian milk industry were selected for analysis. Horizontal, vertical and ratios analysis of financial statements was accomplished. Research has revealed that some trends cannot be used for situations with negative ratios, so only 351 of possible 432 trends were calculated. The less accurate trends and those trends with inadequate accuracy were rejected, using accuracy measures like MAPE, MPE and others, so it came to 29 trend set. Most trends were for the solvency ratios forecasting, and only few could forecast the profitability ratios. Using the clarified and accurate enough ratios, forecasting values were calculated for every corresponding ratio. Later, using the ratios forecasts data together with earlier accomplished horizontal, vertical and ratios analysis of financial statements, status of the analysed companies was discussed, as well as insights and forecasts. Conclusions summarize ideas and concepts discussed in the chapter of theory. The object of research, and research methods were also discussed. Summary of research results was stated, together with forecasts and insights of analysed companies. Author thinks and believes that using only trends is not a reliable enough method to forecast the financial state of Lithuanian milk industry companies. The author also thinks that using trends together with other classical financial analysis and forecasting methods is wise and useful. |
