| Abstract [eng] |
69 pages, 15 pictures, 15 tables, 63 references The main purpose of this master thesis is to analyze sector of credit union and create bankrupcy prediction model based on financial information. The work consists of three main parts: the analysis of scientific literature, the research methodology and research results, also conclusion and recommendations. Literature analysis reviews characteristics of credit unions, review of Credit Union activities in Lithuania, causes and consequences of Credit Union Reform, main financial ratios and bussines operational risks. Also literature analysis presents the main aspects of bankrupcy prediction models, its types and the most populars financial ratios which are used in the models. After the literature analysis, research design was set up and the methods were selected. First of all scientific research was presented. Any populations methods were not selected because the whole credit union sector was analyzed. It consits of 66 still operating credit unios and 13 failed credit unions. The main purpose of this part is to create methodology of financial ratios sample and to choose method of bankruptcy prediction model creation, by setting up the parametres of model valuation. The last part begins with comprehensive analysis of failed credit unions, identifying the main causes of bankruptcy, identifying the most significant lines in the financial statements and financial ratios. While performing the analysis of relative financial ratios, the possibilities of their inclusion in the model were considered, and created a collection of financial ratios. The selection of financial ratios were made using correlation method. Final banckrupcy prediction model for credit union was designed based on logistic regression. The conclusions and recommendations summarize the main concepts of literature analysis as well as results of the situation analysis and empirical research. The author believes that the results of the study would be helpful to valute countinuace of credit unions and to secure from bankrupcy. |
