| Abstract [eng] |
IMPORTS OF ENERGY RESOURCES IN LITHUANIA: PERSPECTIVES AND IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY 57 pages, 7 charts, 6 pictures, 61 references. The main purpose of this master thesis is to determine the impact of imports of energy resources to Lithuanian economy. The work consists of four main parts: the analysis of literature, the research and its results, perspectives, conclusion and recommendations. Literature and statistical analysis show, that after the shutting down of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant in 2009, Lithuania has become one of the major importers of electricity and other energy sources in the EU. It has led to high energy dependency and economic vulnerability of the country. However, the implementation of the LNG terminal as well as NordBalt and LitPol Link electricity interconnections allowed diversification of the risk of energy suppliers and ensured competitive resource prices in the country. After the literature analysis the author has done empirical research, which includes relationship of energy resources import and energy consumption, Granger causality between energy consumption and GDP of Lithuania, also it includes energy price impact on energy consumption. This study uses annual data taken from Eurostat database from 1995 to 2017 and quarterly data from 2008 to 2017. The empirical results suggest a positive impact of energy consumption on economic growth, and emphasize bidirectional Granger causalities between the two macroeconomic indicators. Also, results of study show, that changing energy prices does not change consumers' preferences. In perspective, the authors predict three possible scenarios: normal, rapid, and slow economic growth. Therefore, Lithuanian energy policy should be oriented towards the development and synchronization of international energy in order to achieve a scenario of rapid economic growth. |
