| Abstract [eng] |
Bankruptcy Prediction Models and Their Effectiveness Case Study of Lithuanian and Belgian Bankrupt Companies 65 pages, 21 charts, 14 pictures, 65 references. The aim of this Master’s thesis is to determine effective bankruptcy prediction models in bankrupt logistics companies in Lithuania and Belgium. Hypothesis No. 1 – that classical bankruptcy prediction models are more accurate than modern ones when applied in logistics companies. Hypothesis 2 - classical bankruptcy models are more accurate applied in an environment with higher macroeconomic indicators. The work consists of three parts: literature review, research methodology and the research itself. The first part presents the concept of bankruptcy, the causes, classical and modern models of bankruptcy prediction, the main financial ratios, the complex diagnosis of bankruptcy and the proposed preventive measures. In the research part was performed the comparative analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators of Lithuania and Belgium and the statistics of the logistics sector. For the research were selected the following Lithuanian bankrupt logistics companies: UAB “KTL Transport & Logistics”, UAB “Logistikos sprendimai”; UAB “Logistikos standartai”, UAB “Klaipėdos logistika”; UAB “Logistikos grupė “and Belgian bankrupt logistics companies: “LP Trans”; “GO Trans”; “CS Trans”; “AS Trading”; “EXTRA Logistics”. To achieve the goal of the work were used the following classics: Altman, Taffler and Tisshaw, Springate, Chesser, Zavgren and modern ones: S. Grigaravičius, Stoškus and others, Romania and Shumway, bankruptcy predictions models. The results of the study denied the hypothesis No. 1. Modern bankruptcy models have been more efficient established in Lithuanian logistics companies, and classic models in Belgian companies. However, the results of the study confirmed the hypothesis No. 2 (classical models are more efficient in an environment with higher macroeconomic indicators), although the expediency of the obtained results is not high. The results of the analysis showed that the Shumway model is sufficiently efficient in companies in both countries studied. The final part of the work provides recommendations for logistics companies to apply the Shumway model and other preventive measures to help avoid the threat of bankruptcy. |
