| Abstract [eng] |
Nuclear energy is one of the most economical and environmentally friendly energy source in our days. However, the disasters in nuclear power plants cause severe consequences. Astravets' nuclear power plant is being constructed near Lithuanian border, only 50 km from Vilnius, while Kaliningrad's nuclear power plant constructions is temporarily stopped. It is important to estimate the risk of these nuclear objects and identify exposure doses for citizens of Lithuania. The aim of this work is to estimate radiological impact of nuclear power plants which are constructed around Lithuania. The PC COSYMA codes use the Gaussian model to calculate atmospheric dispersion on radioactive material. Three years historical meteorological data are used for calculations and 74 simulation cycles, each lasting 20 – 30 minutes, was made. After drawing maps it became clear that 50 km radius from the plants is more than 0,8 mSv dose and in the radius of 100 km more than 0,5 mSv radiation dose. Exposure dose in Vilnius is between 0,4 mSv and 0,5 mSv within five days after accident in Astravets nuclear power plant. The probability for Vilnius' citizens to have zero exposure is 31 %, and the probability that exposure would be greater than zero is 69 %. Also, it would be 53 % chance to get exposure smaller than 1 mSv and only 17 % chance to get greater exposure than 1 mSv within five days. The most unwanted simulated scenario for Vilnius' citizens is to get a 2,9 mSv dose. However, the probability is only 2,8%. |
