| Abstract [eng] |
There is considerable agreement internationally about the factors that determine the relative size of the underground economy and that evidence of underground activity will be captured in several economic indicators. Until recently, however, the methods that have been employed to measure the underground economy focused on only a few causal factors, one indicator, and only produced an estimate for one particular point in time. This paper presents the modeling technique that threats the underground economy as an unobservable or latent variable and incorporates multiple indicator and multiple causal variables – MIMIC model. Moreover this technique allows us to estimate the significance of each causal variable as well as each indicator. First of all the theoretical definition of the shadow economy is proposed. Further the MIMIC modeling technique is described and the emphasis is laid on the most common variables used for latter method. Subsequently, the model is defined and the corresponding economical variables of Lithuanian are chosen. Whereupon the model is estimated and respecified while nonsignificant variables and relations been removed. Finally the conclusions about the most suitable model and statistically significant variables are maid. |
