| Abstract [eng] |
82 pages, 8 figures, 13 tables, 48 literature sources. The main goal of this master's thesis is to create a model for assessing the state's resilience to hybrid threats. This work consists of three parts; first a literature analysis has been conducted to provide context to this thesis, research and its results are then presented. Finally, the conclusion and subsequent recommendations are provided. The literature analysis reviews different aspects of the manifestation of hybrid threats and reveals their complexity. The second part of the work reviews cases of resilience to hybrid threats and creates an initial model of the state's resilience to hybrid threats, based on the concept of a learning organization. After analysing the literature, the author conducted a study to assess the resilience of the Republic of Lithuania to hybrid threats. A qualitative study was conducted - a semi-structured interview. Based on the literature review and the analysis of secondary sources, an initial conceptual model was formed. As a result of the data collected during the literature review and the questionnaire, a qualitative study was conducted, which helped to verify the initial model and at the end of the study to assess the resilience of the Republic of Lithuania to hybrid threats. The abductive method was chosen for the research based on an ontological, subjectivist philosophy while investigating the assumptions made by the informants about hybrid threats in Lithuania and their organizations. A targeted, non-probable selection of informants was chosen for the research. In accordance the list of institutions compiled in the first part of the work, representatives of key institutions occupying positions at management levels, whose duties are directly related to the preparation and implementation of the institution's strategy and ensuring interaction with other institutions, were selected. The list of selected institutions is based on DIMEFIL. 12 interviews were conducted with managers and employees at the management level who have competences to answer questions about the organization's activities and interaction with other institutions. The study revealed that there is a need to strengthen the ability to detect and recognize hybrid threats. State resilience requires a systemic approach. A better common understanding of hybrid threats requires standardized terminology. With the aim to ensure the security and stability of the state and the integration of different institutions, a unified hybrid threat identification training program is needed. Training of organizations and their leaders is required, which will enable the fostering of mutual trust and the development of decentralized enforcement practices and better organizational learning. To achieve effective cooperation, common understanding of the situation is a necessary condition, therefore a state-level communication network with a database accessible to all would support information sharing and better flow of knowledge. Lithuania implements an effective set of measures in order to ensure the security and stability of the state, responding to changing threats and challenges. |
