| Abstract [eng] |
Mediation – the involvement of a third party in the negotiation of a conflict – is not a core function of the European Union, but it plays an important role in shaping international relations. One of the main examples of EU mediation is the mediation of the Kosovo-Serbia conflict. One of the cornerstones of mediation that underlines the relevance of this topic is its effectiveness. Exogenous factors – uncontrollable external influences – often influence the precise nature of EU mediation and alter the course of conflict resolution. Due to the prevailing global context, the most relevant exogenous factors in recent years have been: Chinese influence, Russian influence, US influence and COVID-19 influence. This study focuses on the period 2020-2024, when these exogenous factors were at their most pronounced due to the circumstances. Thus, given the influence of exogenous factors and the willingness to dig deeper, the research question is: how have exogenous factors influenced the effectiveness of EU mediation in the Kosovo-Serbia conflict? A literature review on mediation has shown that the authors tend to focus on endogenous factors influencing the effectiveness of mediation without considering the impact of exogenous factors. This results in a lack of scientific rigour. The focus on exogenous factors implies a completely new approach and scientific findings that show the degree of effectiveness of mediation, thus revealing the scientific novelty of this work. Therefore, the subject of this Master's thesis is the effectiveness of EU mediation in the Kosovo-Serbia conflict, taking into account the influence of exogenous factors. The aim of the thesis is to draw on Julian Bergmann's theory to identify the impact of exogenous factors on the effectiveness of EU mediation in the Kosovo-Serbia conflict in 2020-2024. The objectives of this Master's thesis are to present the six factors that make mediation effective and investigate the influence of exogenous factors such as China, Russia, the US and COVID-19 on the effectiveness of mediation, based on the determinants of the effectiveness of mediation as described by Julian Bergmann: leverage, mediation strategy, coherence, mediator coordination, the conflict parties' willingness to compromise, and the conflict parties' internal cohesiveness. The empirical study will examine the economic, political and other factors influencing the development of mediation. The following hypotheses are formulated: • H1: Chinese influence negatively affected the mediator's leverage in the conflict and the mediated conflict parties' willingness to compromise. • H2: Russian influence negatively affected the mediated conflict parties' willingness to compromise in Kosovo and Serbia. • H3: US influence had a positive impact on mediator coordination. • H4: COVID-19 influence negatively affected mediation strategy, coherence, conflict parties' willingness to compromise and conflict parties' internal cohesiveness. Four hypotheses were put forward, the first three of which were confirmed. The fourth, which hypothesised that COVID-19 would have a negative impact on the mediation strategy, can be considered as partially unconfirmed, as it can be argued that COVID-19 contributed positively to the mediation strategy. Conflict parties' willingness to compromise, as hypothesised in Hypothesis 4, should have been negatively affected, but the effect of COVID-19 on this determinant of effectiveness was twofold – both positive and negative. It is hoped that the findings of the Master's thesis will broaden the niche of research with previously unexplored results and enrich the research field. This Master's thesis is an introduction to future research that may discover new determinants of mediation effectiveness or add a few more to existing ones. |
