| Title |
Logistic method to indicate unsustainable growth situations / |
| Translation of Title |
Logistinis netvarių augimo situacijų atpažinimo metodas. |
| Authors |
Mialik, Andžela |
| Full Text |
|
| Pages |
53 |
| Keywords [eng] |
logistic growth models ; economic crisis ; leveraged investment ; interval logistic growth model ; fuzzy logic |
| Abstract [eng] |
The dissertation analyses logistic growth models. The study of various sources leads to the conclusion that saturation is one of the most important characteristics of growing populations. The newly created methodology allows to recognize unsustainable situations of economic development. The work introduces a new transformed interval logistic growth model constructed on the basis of the truncated mean of time series data. A new LogMod method is created which solves the problem of determination of the saturation parameter by applying the expert fuzzy set system. It allowed to increase the accuracy of the market saturation parameter Kp and expanded the applicability range of the model in economic logistic analysis. The universality of the LogMod model as well as the possibility to increase the coherence of economy is exposed. A user may operatively react to the changes of a growth trajectory by efficient management of the growth process. This provides an opportunity to mitigate economic declines and helps to avoid great losses for both businesses and natural persons. Evaluation of growth process saturation is crucial in economic research, whereas the essence of modeling is to identify the growth limit. A newly created model of leveraged investment showed that longer investment period and higher saturation level of the market, in which the investment is made, cause the rise of investment risk. |
| Type |
Summaries of doctoral thesis |
| Language |
English |
| Publication date |
2014 |
