| Abstract [eng] |
In recent years the population ageing and the longevity tendencies are observed in almost all countries. This problem is significant for the state pension system as well as for the private insurance companies, paying life annuities. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the ageing tendencies in Baltic States, perform the sensitivity for mortality and interest rate changes analysis, predict the mortality in Baltic States in the future. The mortality was modeled and forecasted by using R. D. Lee and L. R. Carter model. The mortality table is designed after analyzing data and making necessary calculations. Produced table is applied to solve the prediction problem and to calculate the longevity factors - life expectancy and annuities. Conclusions obtained: -Longevity problem exists; -Decreasing mortality probabilities are observed; -The annuity is more sensitive to mortality fluctuation than to interest rate fluctuations. The overall conclusion is obtained that population ageing problem exists, but it is not very threatening. However, the size of annuity payments should be evaluated paying careful attention to longevity tendencies. Moreover, they should also be prudent in respect of interest rates, not only the mortality. |
