| Abstract [eng] |
The question of Iraq has been analyzed since the very beginning of the Gulf War I. After the terrorist attacks on the 11 September, 2001, when USA declared war against the international terrorism, the question of Iraq again became one of the main discussions objects in the international discourse. Noteworthy is the State of the Union Address, delivered by the President of the USA G.W. Bush on the 29 January, 2002, where this country is labeled as the “axis of evil”, and removal of its leader S. Hussain’s regime is promoted at the international level. Importance of this research is illustrated by the still unsolved dilemma of Iraq’s future. The 23 May, 2003 coalition, commanded by the USA, invaded Iraq and removed the authoritarian regime that was ruling the country. However, by removal of the S. Hussain’s regime, the coalition also ruined the structure, that was maintaining the state of Iraq as a unit. Iraq found itself at the threshold of disintegration that is why the stabilization of Iraq as soon as possible is important to the neighbor countries, USA and the international community. 15 October, 2005, the new constitution of Iraq was passed in a public referendum. In one of the first articles of the constitution it is stated, that Iraq will become a federal state. Building of the federal state that began after the pass of the new constitution has been in process up to today, and can take years. That is why, one of the main aims of this Master Thesis is to define, what conditions that the federation model will not become the stabilizing model in the state of Iraq? The hypothesis raised in this Thesis is: Lack of intercommunity of social, political, cultural, economical and military elements between the regions of Iraq determines that federal state of Iraq will not be stable. Seeking to achieve the aim of this Thesis, three main tasks are formulated: - To determine the theoretical factors that condition stability of federal states; - To assess the present political discourse in the state and to set the possible profile of federal Iraq; - To evaluate the perspective of Iraq’s stability, referring to the factors, that condition stability of federal states, determined in the theoretical part of this Thesis. The empirical research in this Thesis is done using the method of Competing Hypothesis. The point of this method is analyzing the selected factors and attributing them to one of the competing hypothesis. The final conclusion for the passage or rejection depends on which hypothesis has more factors supporting it. This Thesis consists of three main parts. In the first, theoretical part, the theoretical conception of federalism, the reasons for the development of federal states and their constitutions are overviewed. In the second, i.e., empirical part, prognosis are made for what federal units can Iraq consist of. After the analysis of the processes that take place in Iraq, the aims and actions of various ethnical groups and the political organizations representing these groups, it is defined, that the future federation of Iraq would consist of three federal units, composed on the ethnical basis. In the third part of the Thesis stability perspectives of the federal Iraq model are analyzed. Factors conditioning stability of federal states, determined in the theoretical part, are chosen as the basis for the analysis in this part. After the analysis, made using the method of Competing Hypothesis, it proved, that six indicators out of ten show, that federal state of Iraq will be unstable. That is why, it can be definitely stated, that the main hypothesis of this Thesis: Lack of intercommunity of social, political, cultural, economical and military elements between the regions of Iraq determines that federal state of Iraq will not be stable, proved to be right. |
