| Abstract [eng] |
In this paper the prospects of Afghanistan's democratization are examined in context of previous U.S. attempts to democratize foreign countries by means of military interventions. Thus the object of this paper is not only the process of Afghanistan’s democratization, but also the examination of precedent cases, it’s outcomes and inner, as well as outer factors that possibly led to these outcomes. These factors are ethnic homogeneity of democratized state’s society, concentration and civil control of coercion, modern economy and developed middle-class, homogeneity of democratizing country’s politics towards the process, as well as the nature of process itself – is whole community is chosen as “target” of democratization process, or just it’s ruling elite. Comparative analysis of these factors in previous cases allowed to create a framework for a case study of Aghanistan's democratization's prospects. This case study leads to conclusion that prospects of Afghanistan’s democratization are at best vague. To add, these conclusions can only be considered as provisory: as comparative analysis of precedent cases revealed, no clear pattern, enabling to predict democratization attempt’s success or failure, can be drawn. We cannot state firmly, that country, where democratic institutions and procedures are installed, will become a consolidated democracy. Equally, there is no absolute evidence, that country with poor economic achievements, with weak middle-class, with other theoretically significant factors unfavorable, has no chance for democracy. Hence, if international community, involved in Afghanistan’s democratization process, accepts the costs of this initiative, it should carry on. |
