| Abstract [eng] |
In this paper, we estimate the size and the evoliuton of shadow economy in Lithuania over the period 1995 – 2010, using a vector error correction model (VECM). A special attention was given to definition of the shadow economy and the main causes of determining the shadow economy. Also the short review of methods how to estimate shadow economy was presented. A big attention was givent to non-stationarity and cointegration of variables. The results indicate that in Lithuania we can bring three different periods of shadow economy dynamics: at the first one between 1995 – 1999QII the highest level is recorded, the average approximately 40,2 % of GDP. In later period till world crisis begins in midle of 2008, we have all time decreasing level of shadow economy. The average approximately 31,3 % of GDP, and the minimum value 26 % of GDP reaches at the end of mentioned period. During 2008QIV – 2010 period shadow ecomony increases to 32-34 % of GDP. This estimate we compare with other searches, and the result we get is at different levels of GDP, but the direction of the curves is the same. Econometric analysis is performed using Eviews 6 and MS Excel packages. |
