| Abstract [eng] |
There are few scientific works based on logistic capital management theory, therefore it is expedient try to use this theory for analysis of practical phenomena, such as innovations, economic growth. Innovations are very important for the processes in economic, because they create their own market and simultaneously enlarge market capacity. In this case it is possible to avoid or to distance downturn and crisis. Analysis of holiday package innovation shows, that there were already two seven years duration cycles, from 1996 till 2003 and from 2003 till 2010. Second cycle is essential for holiday package innovation. After results of analysis was predicted, that the third cycle of outbound tourism in Lithuania starts from 2010 and continues till 2017. The saturation is expected in 2014 or 2015. Logistic analysis of holiday package innovation has shown, that it is possible to adjust the main thesis of logistic capital management theory to tourism sector. Tourism sector, as all market, and holiday package, as other innovations, has its market, which is limited. Therefore the growth can’t be endless, it is also limited. The growth over the border of potential capital stimulates the paradox of internal return. Saturation of the market cause the downturn and economic crisis. |
