| Abstract [eng] |
The thesis analyses the factors that determine the debt of Lithuanian municipalities in the period 2015-2023. The aim of the thesis is to analyse the scientific literature and empirical research on municipal debt, to develop a model for assessing the factors determining municipal debt and to carry out an assessment of these factors in all Lithuanian municipalities. According to the analysis of the scientific literature in the first part of the thesis, the aim is to reveal the concept of the municipality, as well as the functions it performs, to discuss the principles and methods of state and municipal budgeting, the need of the municipality for municipal borrowing and the limits of debt. This part of the thesis also analyses the research on the factors that determine the local government debt. The second part of the thesis presents the methodology of the empirical study of the determinants of municipal debt. The development of the estimation model and the justification of the sample and the period of the study are carried out. It also includes the formulation of hypotheses, the development of the research equation, the development of the empirical model and the discussion of the stages and methods of the study. After an analysis of the scientific literature, the factors involved in municipal debt are discussed. The third part of the thesis analyses the factors determining the debt of Lithuanian municipalities and their dynamics in the period 2015-2023. To assess the validity of the model, tests are performed to evaluate the model of factors determining municipal debt. After the estimation model has been constructed, an analysis of the factors affecting municipal debt is carried out, the factors affecting municipal debt are identified, and the hypotheses are tested during the period under study. The results of the empirical study confirmed that out of the six factors analysed in the study, i.e. population under 65, population over 65, employment of population, tax revenue, material investment and election year, only two factors (population under 65 and population over 65) were determined, the values of which were statistically significant when analyzed municipal debts in the period 2015-2023. The six hypotheses were tested and only three of them were confirmed, i.e. that municipal debts increase with population growth and ageing, while municipal debts decrease with higher employment in the municipality. Keywords: municipalities, debt, local government, factors determining debts, analysis. |
