| Abstract [eng] |
The aim of the work is to analyze the employment rate of people of retirement age and to make a forecast for 2024 in Lithuania and Latvia. According to the literature reviewed, micro factors affecting employment of older people are age, gender, health, education, profession. Macro factors include old-age pension, wages, the level of vacancies. According to the researchers, age and health have a negative impact on employment in older people. Gender, education and occupation have a positive impact on the employment rate of older people. Old age pension has a negative impact on the level of employment. Wages and job vacancies have a positive impact. Four variables were used to perform the work, with time series from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2024. To achieve the goal of work, VECM models were developed. The results of the study, which are the impact of the selected variables on employment rates, are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results showed that the employment of people with retirement age is affected by denial, and wages and the level of vacancies have a positive impact. The analysis of employment rates in Lithuania and Latvia from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2023 shows that employment rates in both countries are similar and have increased over the entire period analyzed. It is also seen that it was affected by the global crisis of 2008 and by the quarantine of COVID-19 in 2020. The models’ forecasts show that the promotion measures currently in place in Lithuania and Latvia are working properly, but should be reviewed regularly by policy users to make their impact even better and to adapt new measures such as more flexibility in the workplace, raising the retirement age, based on the example of neighboring countries, a more progressive mechanism for increasing pensions, where people are at retirement age, tax breaks for employers who work older people, more incentives for people to participate in lifelong learning and make them more accessible in regions, limited access to early retirement and campaigns that would change the public’s attitude toward older people. |
