| Abstract [eng] |
In this study author analyzes relations between instiutional, economic and democratic „inauguration“ factors and electoral volatility in EP elections among separate member states and the entire EU during 1984-2014. The object of this study is the dependence of electoral volatility in EP elections from the institutional, economic and democratic „inauguration“ factors. The main problem this study concentrates is the growing electoral volatility and lack of studies in academic literature about the link between institutional, economic and democratic „inauguration“ aproaches (that are commonly known as the main approaches explaining electoral volatility in national elections) and EP elections, especially in long- term period. Although several academic studies about electoral volatility in EP elections shows that classic „second-order“ elections model towards EP elections fits well, but those authors compare EP and NP elections together and do not take EP elections as a separate case. Also they do not use any of classic electoral volatility approaches, so this study is a new one. On the basis of that the main goal of this academic study was to find out whether it is possible to forecast electoral volatility in EP elections during the period of 1984-2014 in separate EU member states considering the classic institutional, economic and democratic „inauguration“ approaches. Tasks of this study were: a) to structure the studies of academic researchers explaining the electoral volatility and factors that cause it; b) according to the academic literature to formulate theoretical basis of this work, together determine the theoretical approaches explaining electoral volatility (institutional, economic and democratic „inauguration") and formulate research hypotheses; c) using a quantitative method and regression models assess a link between the independent (institutional, economic and democratic „inauguration" theoretical approaches) and dependent (electoral volatility in EP elections during 1984-2014) variables; a) to explain the (non)existance of this link. Quantitative analysis and linear regression method showed some statistically significant cases. First of all, “effective“ number of parties (institutional variable), GDP growth and unemployment rate (economic variables) included together explained electoral volatility in Ireland. Secondly, “effective“ number of parties as a single variable showed significance in EP elections in 1984 including all the countries and in Greece separately during 1984-2014. Thirdly, GDP growth explained electoral volatility in 1999 and 2009 including all the countries and in Netherlands and Spain separately during 1984-2014. Fourthly, unemployment rate explained electoral volatility in 2004 and 2014 including all the countries and in Greece separately during 1984-2014. Lastly, democratic „inauguration“ or the time when democracy consolidated in the political system variable seemed significant as well- predicting results and electoral volatility in EP elections lastly „inaugurated“ region- Middle and Eastern Europe- faces the highest electoral volatility, while surprisingly in South European region it is the lowest, although this region was „inaugurated“ later than Western Europe This work showed that although those theoretical approaches explaining electoral volatility in national elections are not absolutely appropriate explaining electoral volatility in EP elections, but still there are cases where it proved significant. The next goal or step after this work is to take a separate studies of signicifant cases and to explain the relationship between variables in a deep manner by using more qualitative than quatitative method of study. Alternatively, it would be useful to check whether „European matters“ approach explaining electoral volatility in EP elections, including variables such as satisfaction of EP (EU) etc., since no work is done yet while the institutional role of EP EU-wide is growing. |
