| Abstract [eng] |
This paper examines how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has affected Europe's strategic cacophony, which is the main problematic question of this thesis. Accordingly, the object of this thesis is Europe‘s strategic cacophony. Strategic cacophony is interpreted as a complex concept, essentially being the antithesis of the concept of strategic autonomy - together they create a spectrum in which Europe can fluctuate. Strategic cacophony is defined as encompassing three dimensions: the assessment of threats by European states; Common European defense capabilities; Structural dependence on the United States. Both the concepts of strategic autonomy and strategic cacophony together, in the context of this study, raise the dimensions of independence from the United States and the ability to deter Russia independently, which are interrelated. In order to answer how the invasion of Ukraine affected the European strategic cacophony, hypotheses are derived from the three dimensions of the above-mentioned dimensions, based on theoretical assumptions relevant to the issues of this study: Hypothesis H1: The Russian invasion of Ukraine had a dual impact on the threat assessments of European states - increasing the threat assessments of most states regarding Russia, but at the same time having a polarizing effect on Europe. Hypothesis H2: The Russian invasion of Ukraine had a limited impact on the institutionalization of the coordination of European defense capabilities. Hypothesis H3: The Russian invasion of Ukraine had a smaller impact on European actions to reduce structural dependence on the US than D. Trump's re-election. The hypotheses are tested by analyzing the three aforementioned dimensions of strategic cacophony using qualitative content analysis - the assessments of Russian threats by 29 European states, the cooperation of European defense capabilities, and the structural dependence of Europe on the US in deterring Russia are examined. Using the theories of punctuated equilibrium and post-functionalism, the results obtained during the testing of hypothesis, are then analyzed and the causal relationships discovered are identified, identifying the fundamental reasons for the persistent fragmentation of Europe. The reasons for the rise in the geopolitical significance of the European Union in early 2022 and subsequent dynamics are analyzed. It is found that while the external shock brought most countries closer to seeing Russia as a threat, it also had a polarizing effect on Europe. The rise of EU‘s role as a significant geopolitical actor in the beggining of the war can be explained by punctuated equilibrium theory, the issues, that were ignored previously, were put on the front of the political agenda due to external shock. However, this significance of the EU dropped with time due to internal constraints explained by the postfunctionalist theory, mainly due to dividing nature of the war in Ukraine, politization of military aid by the European populist parties. Also, Ukraine‘s failed spring-summer counteroffensive of 2023 is seen as a critical point in the war, which had lasting effect on both military aid and goals of Europe on how it views the supposed end of this war, while also fueling the arguments for the critics of military aid. It is found that, at least partially, Europe‘s strive for strategic autonomy was affected more by the re-election of Donald Trump, rather than the external shock of war in Ukraine. This is proven by examining the chronology and scale of decision making in Europe that corresponds with this prism, mostly the scale of military budgets and procurements, also initiatives that are aimed at coordinating and integrating a joint European defence capability. |
