| Abstract [eng] |
The main purpose of this master’s thesis is to analyze and evaluate how changes in energy prices affect economic growth in Europe in the long term. The work consists of three main parts: the analysis of scientific literature, the empirical research and its results, and conclusions. The literature analysis provides an overview of the the dynamics of oil and natural gas prices, as well as economic growth. It also reviews previous empirical studies on the impact of changes in energy resource prices on real GDP in OECD and Euro area countries. In addition, the literature review includes an analysis of European countries’ dependence on different energy sources. After the literature analysis, the author carries out an empirical study aimed at assessing the long-term relationship between energy prices and economic growth in European countries. The research includes estimating VAR and VECM models to examine the effects of oil and natural gas price shocks on real GDP for 30 European countries. The performed research reveals positive oil price shocks have a negative long–term effect on GDP in most European countries, typically emerging after several quarters. The impact of natural gas price shocks is weaker and more volatile, but in the long run it also becomes negative in energy–importing economies. Central and Eastern European countries show greater sensitivity to energy price fluctuations, while Norway stands out due to a positive GDP response. The inclusion of the post–2020 period indicates an increased magnitude and uncertainty of energy price shock effects. In the conclusions, after summarising the main insights from the literature review and the empirical results, the thesis highlights the importance of energy diversification and strengthening economic resilience in European countries in order to mitigate the long–term negative effects of energy price shocks on economic growth. |
