| Abstract [eng] |
The master’s thesis analyses how global supply chain disruptions affect inflation dynamics in a sample of 30 countries using monthly Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices data and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The relevance of the topic stems from the vulnerability of supply chains, logistics bottlenecks and energy price shocks that became evident during the COVID-19 period, turning into an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations and revealing that traditional demand factors are insufficient to explain the inflation surge in the euro area, while most existing empirical studies rely on aggregated euro area estimates or single-country analyses and therefore do not allow for a consistent assessment of the magnitude and heterogeneity of the impact across a broader group of countries at a monthly frequency. The empirical part applies a dynamic distributed-lag model with GSCPI and a set of control variables (PPI, unemployment, import and export indicators) estimated separately for each country and finds that in most countries supply chain pressure shocks significantly increase inflation with a lag of several months. |
