| Abstract [eng] |
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is an important economic indicator that allows the assessment of changes in consumer goods and services prices based on a harmonised methodology applied within the European Union. In practice, changes in this price index are considered an indicator of inflation. Given the importance of the HICP, it is necessary to improve calculation methods in order to ensure a more reliable measurement of inflation. In recent years, many countries have begun to use retail scanner data for the calculation of the HICP, which are considered one of the most reliable data sources for calculating this price index. In Lithuania, the use of such data has not yet been widely studied or integrated into the HICP calculation, therefore further research is required. The main objective of this master’s thesis is to perform practical price indices calculations, analyse the obtained results, and provide recommendations for improving the calculation of the HICP in Lithuania. At the beginning of the thesis, the main elements of price index theory are presented, including methods and properties of price index construction. Different classes of price indices formulas and their interrelationships are also examined, along with methodological aspects required for price index aggregation, chain linking of time series, bias assessment, price and quantity indicators, and statistical characteristics of price indices. In the empirical part, scanner data provided by the State Data Agency are used to perform various price indices calculations and statistical analyses. Since multilateral price indices are recommended in practice when using scanner data, particular attention is paid to parameter modifications of these indices and the analysis of the obtained results. In addition, contributing to the theoretical literature on multilateral price indices, the axiomatic properties of the GEKS-LM price index are proven in this thesis. |
