| Abstract [eng] |
As a result of worldwide deregulation of electricity markets, electricity can be bought and sold like any other commodity. Considering the increase of renewables, decarbonatization, upcoming deregulation of Lithuania, forecasting electricity price is an important topic in Lithuania, which needs to be analysed. So far, only a few researches about electricity price forecasting in Lithuania were done, meaning that further analysis is needed. The short-term electricity price forecasting model can be used by electricity generators, suppliers, traders, and end customers (mostly large customers). This work aims to build a statistical AR-type time series model for short-term electricity price forecasting in Lithuania using external variables. Electricity price displays high volatility, spikes, and double seasonality, making it difficult to achieve high accuracy in forecasting. |
